Making high-stakes business decisions has always been hard. But in recent decades, as the complexities of global commerce have deepened, it’s become tougher than ever. The choices facing managers and the data requiring analysis have multiplied even as the time for analyzing them has shrunk.
One decision-making tool—human intuition—seems to offer a reliable alternative to painstaking fact gathering and analysis. Encouraged by scientific research on intuition, top managers feel increasingly confident that, when faced with complicated choices, they can just trust their gut. Indeed, a survey that was conducted in May 2002 by executive search firm Christian & Timbers reveals that fully 45% of corporate executives now rely more on instinct than on facts and figures in running their businesses. Decision-making consultant Gary Klein, in his book Intuition at Work, expresses the common wisdom when he says that intuition is “at the center of the decision-making process” and that analysis is, at best, “a supporting tool for making intuitive decisions.”